Change It Up: Gausman and the Circle Changeup

After bouncing up and down between Norfolk and Baltimore in 2014, Kevin Gausman stabilized himself on the roster in the second half with the injury to Ubaldo Jimenez.  This led him to a stat line of a 3.72 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 7.44 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, and 1.35 WHIP.  While not dominating numbers, Kevin Gausman showed promise of being a potential top starter in the rotation for the Orioles.   In addition, he gave some dominating performances within the playoffs pitching for 8.0 IP and giving up only a 1.13 ERA with seven strikeouts and two walks.  However, there is reason to be concerned with the current pitching mix of Gausman at this time.

Kevin Gausman currently uses five pitches and has used them with the following percentage over the 2013 and 2014 season:

• Four Seam Fastball:  67.21% at 96.20 MPH
• Sinker (One Seam Fastball): 2.01% at 94.02 MPH
• Slider:  8.44% at 82.04 MPH
• Fosh (Split Finger Changeup):  17.63% at 84.23 MPH
• Circle Changeup:  4.71% at 87.03 MPH

During the 2014 season, Gausman continued to evolve as pitcher in his pitch usage.  One of the major focus points and struggles has been with the slider during 2014 and it seemed to ebb and flow in usage based on the efficacy of the pitch in terms of slugging percentage.

Pitch Usage as a Percentage by Kevin Gausman

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball – brooksbaseball.net

Slugging Percentage against Pitch Types for Kevin Gausman

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball – brooksbaseball.net

The use of the slider has come up recently at Fanfest when Steve Melewski interviewed Gausman on its development and plans for Spring Training:

“I am always working on my slider and trying to refine it. I felt it was really good when I was coming out of the bullpen. And it was that way in 2013 with my slider coming out of the bullpen. I just need to trust it and throw it and let the grip do the work. Other that that, just try to be more consistent. My main focus now is getting strong, be strong and ready for spring training.”

The use of the slider has had multiple parties interested this off-season including those whom have advocated him using it more based on Pitch F/X.  This article on Hardball Times advocated that Gausman use it more often based on the velocity, break angle, break angle, and spin rate that was generated by Gausman last year.  Based on his usage and overall performance of the slider, it was advocated that it could be thrown up to twenty percent of the time.  However, this is not likely based on the efficacy already seen with his Fastball and Fosh.  Let’s examine how effective each pitch was last year based on Z-scores.  Z-scores is the number of standard deviations an observation is above the mean.  In certain cases below having a positive number is not a good thing (i.e. LD/BIP normally indicate more hits put into play).

Z-Scores for Pitch Types During 2014

Info from Brooks Baseball – BrooksBaseball.net

Examination of the slider indicates that in terms of generating whiffs/swing that the performance is below average.  This is an issue if Gausman is using this as an out pitch.  Instead though, it appears he may be using it more on first pitch or when even in the count to get a strike.  This makes sense based on the foul/swing generated off the pitch.  However, it’s also interesting to note how he has selected using the slider against LHH and RHH.  Against RHH, he is relying more heavily on his slider than his Fosh.  It also mirrors another quote from the earlier article:

“You know, there are certain pitches that I wouldn’t throw,” he said. “I would rather throw a changeup to a lefty than a slider, but there were certain times I had to be confident in Nick Hundley behind the plate or Caleb (Joseph) and just trust what they were calling. I think that is something you don’t really deal with until you get to the big leagues.”

Pitch Usage Based on Count and Hitter Type

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

The changeup that Gausman is referencing here is the Fosh or split finger changeup.  It’s interesting to note this mindset of pitch selection by Gausman because it does reflect in the numbers versus RHH.  There is a significant reduction in LD/BIP with his slider against RHH and it’s interesting to note how much more well hit the Fosh is by RHH compared to his overall numbers.  If the Fosh is impacted that heavily against RHH, than the development of an alternate pitch is necessary for his development like many have stated.

Z-Scores for Pitch Types against RHH During 2014

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

While Gausman should continue to work on his development of the slider, I think it’s important to focus on another pitch that has long gone without discussion in this article.  Gausman has toyed with a circle changeup since coming up to the majors.  In an interview with Roch Kubatko in 2013, he discusses the use of the circle changeup:

“It’s the same changeup that I’ve always thrown,” he said. “That’s the pitch that’s usually 82-85 mph. It looks like a curveball when you’re watching from behind.

“My last two starts, I’ve been mixing in a circle change, which is 88-90. I really like that. But somebody was telling me the other day that they thought I was throwing a forkball on that tracker, or whatever it’s called. But no, it’s just a split change.”

The circle change has been thrown in a limited sample size, but enough where it could easily border on a fourth pitch in Gausman’s arsenal.  Looking at the numbers, there is a lot of encouraging information regarding the circle change including a highly rated Whiff/Swing (1.11), LD/BIP (-4.44), and GB/BIP (2.57).  These values all indicate a pitch that can get strikes, but if put into play leads to more outs due to groundball.  This type of pitch especially at Camden Yards could be very valuable especially with the defense behind him.  It has shown to be effective against RHH as well, but the count is far too low to make any determination on at this time.

If Gausman is going to continue to develop, he is going to have learn and develop an effective third pitch outside of his Fastball and Fosh/Splitter.  While the use of the Slider could be that pitch, the Orioles should remind him that a simple circle changeup could be equally as effective for certain games with his velocity.