Delmon Young Not the Answer at DH for O’s

On Christmas Eve, the Orioles reached an agreement with Delmon Young for a 1 year/$2.25 million contract as per Roch Kubatko at MASN Sports.  This prompted many a Orioles fan to once again return to the ALDS Game 2 and relive that clutch double that put the Orioles ahead and led them to eventual victory.  With the loss of Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, Orioles fans have been looking for something to get excited about this winter.  Orioles fans are hopeful that magic from ALDS Game 2 can be rekindled by Delmon Young and be productive in 2015 as a more active DH.   Our reaction here at Bird’s Eye View to these notions can best be described as follows:

Delmon Young will not be the savior for this team.  In fact, he will likely not even make a positive impact for the Orioles come 2015.  He in essence will fill a bench spot on the 25 man roster until the Orioles can determine who would be a better option from either waivers or the minor leagues some point during the season.  Hopefully a trade can be worked out for someone hoping to catch lightning in a bottle like the Orioles did in 2014.  Why am I oh so pessimistic you ask?  To the Numbers!

During the 2014 season, Delmon posted his first above average offensive numbers based off of wRC+ since 2010.  During this time, he saw an increase all offensive numbers with relatively little change in walks, strikeouts, and power.  The reason for this change was due to the massive increase in BABIP.  BABIP is terminology for “Batting Average for Balls In Play” and normally resides around a .300 average for MLB.  Delmon Young for his career has averaged at .324, but over the past few seasons has been much more along the league average.  Folks would be well within their right to know if Delmon Young showed deviations in terms of batted balls during 2014 that could have attributed to such a change.  Perhaps he is hitting more line drives which leads to more hits and as such an increase in offensive metrics.

The numbers show that Delmon’s batted ball profile didn’t really change for 2014.  In fact, if you utilize the batted ball profile and perform an expected BABIP (xBABIP), the expected value should be at .324, which mirrors Delmon Young’s career value interesting enough.  The 2014 is a clear outlier of success on Young’s part with a deviation of .035 or 10.8% relative deviation.  That number will likely return to his career level and his offensive metrics will diminish as well.

It’s also interesting to note that Young had a banner year against RHP for the first time in his career and surprisingly was very mediocre against LHP.  This once again sets up for a likely drop in offensive metrics coming into 2015.

Offensive Metrics Against RHP

Offensive Metrics against LHP

The numbers show that the likely success of Delmon Young to replicate 2014 is not encouraging.  However, the Orioles on a whole have been known to blow their nose at projections and historical expectations.  Perhaps Delmon Young will find some magic with new hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh.  However, the Orioles better have another option ready at DH when and if the numbers catch up with him.