Episode 112: Losing Control
March 9, 2015
Improbable Orioles Cycles
March 15, 2015
Little deuce Coupe
You don’t know what I got
Little deuce Coupe
You don’t know what I got
Dylan Bundy will be entering his first full season coming off Tommy John surgery this year. While the prospect of making the team was out of the question this year, Bundy will be out of options after this year and will need to be on the roster come 2016. This has led to many fans closely watching the effectiveness of Bundy trying to gauge what his role may be on this team.
Upon returning from Tommy John surgery last summer, particular attention was focused on the velocity of Bundy’s fastball. Scouting reports prior to his surgery had clocked his fastball velocity between 95-99 mph. However upon his return, his velocity had decreased to 90-93. By the end of the summer, Bundy has seen an increase in velocity back up to 96 mph.
Reports out of Spring Training on Bundy’s velocity have settled him back between the 90-93 velocity once again in two appearances. When asked about the topic, Buck Showalter commented:
“I thought Dylan was better. You see a lot of guys coming off that surgery, you see a lot of fluctuations in velocity. This gun here was all over the place. It wasn’t even close. I thought the ball came out of his hand pretty good. I thought Dylan was better today. He’s been a little better every time out and that’s what you hope to see.”
Showalter is right in a certain regard. Variation in velocity during Spring Training is something that we’ve seen before his surgery. During the 2013 ST season game, Bundy managed only a 91 to 93 velocity and only threw 18 of 35 pitches for strikes. However, it’s often a harbringer of bad things to come as Bundy was shut down shortly after with tightness in his elbow.
Typically velocities are diminished as Showalter mentioned after surgery, but there are likely other reasons for the issue. Last year during rehabilitation in his first season back from surgery, Bundy’s walk rate increased up from a 3.48 BB/9 to 4.44 BB/9 in work in A-Level Minor League games. That’s quite a difference from 2012 when he pitched to 2.07 BB/9 at a similar level during the 2012 season. The Orioles are likely looking to refine Bundy’s command, which is often an issue after surgery. Establishing mechanics and consistency of deliver will be critical as he comes back this year and has been rated by many has having below average command.
The Orioles are likely also protecting their asset trying to ease him back into the mix. During the mini-camp this January, Buck Showalter mentioned this on on Bundy,
“He’ll be a regular pitcher. He’s crossed every hurdle,” Showalter said. “He’s treated like anybody else. He’s crossed every physical hurdle and then some.”
However, the Orioles have even treated Kevin Gausman different this Spring Training easing his workload in terms of bullpen sessions coming into this season. The Orioles obviously have a specialized plan for Bundy, especially with Rick Peterson in the organization, focused on development of mechanics throughout this season.
In addition, we’ve seen velocity drop significantly for high school high-tier prospects. Back in 2011, The Hardball Times looked at the reduction of velocity in numerous top tier pitcher prospects, but noted the reduced velocity by several big name players from the Mid 90’s to low 90’s including: Clayton Kershaw, Rick Porcello, and Kyle Drabek.
Bundy has been a prized jewel within the Orioles organization for several years now. He has been off limits in terms of trades (…except maybe for Bud Norris for a brief moment). Dylan Bundy has to deliver this year as it will effect what the Orioles need to do next offseason.
Unfortunately as of right now, we don’t know what he’s got.
