Should the Orioles be spending for 2014?

The Orioles off-season has been quite dull and has been deemed a failure by most in the national media.  The pitchforks have been raised and the torches lit here in Baltimore.  But I would raise the question, should the Orioles be spending for 2014?

There has been demand for the Orioles to sign a major free agent this off-season to solidify their winning seasons for the past two seasons.  However, the Orioles have never been large players in free agency.  There biggest successful moves have been Palmeiro (1993), Alomar (1996), and Tejada (2004).  However, they have equally been skunked on signings including Belle (1999), Ponson (2004), Palmeiro (2004), Gonzalez (2010), Gregg (2011), Wada (2012), Jurrjens (2013) and countless others.  This track record in free agency has been especially horrible.

Instead, the Orioles have always focused on internal development and retention.  The Orioles have a key group of players that could form a solid nucleus of this team for years to come.  These players include:

• Adam Jones (CF)
• Manny Machado (3B/SS)
• Chris Davis (1B)
• Matt Wieters (C)
• Chris Tillman (SP)

They have various supplemental pitchers that are under team control for many years to come:

• Wei-Yen-Chen (SP) (2018)
• Miguel Gonzalez (SP) (2018)
• Brian Matsuz (SP/RP) (2017)
• Zach Britton (SP/RP) (2019)
• Troy Patton (RP) (2017)

And they have a ton of prospects that have already shown major league talent that under team control through this decade:

• Kevin Gausman (SP)
• Dylan Bundy (SP)
• Jonathan Schoop (2B)
• David Lough (OF)

This represents 14 of the 25 players that should form the Orioles franchise for years to come.  However, I want to pull two players of note from the first group that need to be considered for this team to move forward.  Those names are obviously Chris Davis and Matt Wieters.  Both of these players are free agents for the 2016 season.  Replacing those two players with someone within the organization cannot be done in this time period.  As such, the Orioles need to look to retain both players as soon as possible.  However, is this possible?

Breaking out the contract breakdown here at Bird’s Eye View, the Orioles would be looking to complete a five (2018) or six (2019) year contract for each player.  This would bring each player to the age of 33 and could still get a follow-up contract in the future dependent on how the age.  Based on contracts handed out this free agency and Scott Boras being the agent, I would propose the following offers to each player this January during arbitration hearings:

Chris Davis (6 Years for $128 Million):

• 2014: $15 Million
• 2015: $17.5 Million
• 2016: $23 Million
• 2017: $23.5 Million
• 2018: $24 Million
• 2019: $25 Million

Matt Wieters (6 Years for $86 Million)

• 2014:  $10 Million
• 2015:  $12.5 Million
• 2016:  $15 Million
• 2017:  $15.5 Million
• 2018:  $16.0 Million
• 2019:  $17.0 Million

By going with this plan, it increases the payroll by an estimated $8 million for 2014 and 2015 over what would be expected in arbitration for Davis and Wieters.  In addition, it sets up the payroll for the 2014 and 2015 to be about the same as 2013 due to new arbitration eligible players (Tillman, Chen, Gonzalez, Flaherty, and Britton).  However, it also excludes Nick Markakis with a $2 Million buyout and JJ Hardy who would be hitting free agency.  As such, the Orioles would need to exceed their current implemented “salary cap” for the 2015 season in order to fill these positions unless a low salary player such as Schoop, Lough, or Peguero could fill in for these positions.  If they can’t then they are looking at least an additional $15 million in salary for the 2015 system.

This raises the question, should the Orioles be spending in 2014?  They should be on extensions for their core players.  However, the addition of free agents while promising for 2014 sets in motion the pending departure of Davis, Wieters, Hardy, or Markakis from this team in future years.  Are adding players like Garza, Jimenez, Cruz, or Morales worth the eventual departure of these players?  I’ll let Buck answer that question:

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