This isn’t the outfielder you are looking for…

The Orioles seem to be in scramble mode to fill their last outfield spot with the loss of Dexter Fowler last week.  And the scenario being positioned by the Orioles right now is not a positive one for the defense.

Dan Duquette says they are still looking at OF options. Said Buck is working with Mark Trumbo to make him a better defender in the OF

— MLB Network Radio (@MLBNetworkRadio) February 28, 2016

Many names have been bantered about on various blogs (Pressbox, Eutaw Street Report) on what the Orioles options are to fill in for the Fowler debacle.  However, one name continues to come up that seems to make the most sense for the role.  In fact, it’s so simple to just look back at the success of 2014 and the failure of 2015 that one person and his pedigree seems to be a perfect fit for 2016.

Nick Markakis promises to be an ideal replacement after the Dexter Fowler debacle.  He offers the ability to be an excellent lead-off hitter with OBP on a team that is sorely lacking it.  Analysis of the key stats over the past two seasons would indicate that the replacement would be ideal for the Orioles:

In addition, the clubhouse morale and team chemistry would of course be back for the Orioles.  The team which platooned eleven outfielders with Jones last year would certainly benefit from consistency in the clubhouse and in the field.  Jones was even quoted as saying as much,

Adam Jones on #Orioles adding Fowler as everyday RF. Jones played beside 11 different RF in '15 after Markakis left pic.twitter.com/f5fgSC2eSC

— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) February 24, 2016

It’s tough to forget the memories of Markakis in the field for the Orioles.  He served as a constant for the team through dark times.

From the arm….

…to the bat…..

…and closing it all off with that smile…

Call Atlanta and make the deal now….Why are we waiting?

Careful Orioles fans.  Do not fall prey to this Jedi Mind Trick.

Markakis had an above average season in 2015 to the surprise of many.  He bounced back from neck surgery to post an admirable .370 OBP.  This value was his highest since 2010 and a huge surprise for a player that bounced throughout the weak Atlanta lineup.  Markakis managed to accomplish this feat with a career year in BB% (10.2% above his career average of 9.4%).  He coupled that with a career BABIP of .338 compared to his career average of .318.  Peripheral numbers in terms of plate discipline and line drive percentage indicate that he took an approach similar to previous years.  Most projection systems are expecting a decline to normalcy for the 32 year old RF with estimates being between .335 to .345 for OBP in the upcoming year.  Steamer and ZIPS forecasts a wOBA of .310, which would place him at a 96 wRC+ in the NL.  To put this in perspective, the projection models currently forecast in a full season Dariel Alvarez would put up a .315 wOBA for a 94 wRC+ in the AL.

There is the issue as well on the defensive regression.  The casual fan will shirk this off as he set the MLB record for games without an error at 398 games.  However, error attribution to outfielders is a joke with most coming on errant throws in the field and not on balls the player should have caught.  Other defensive metrics, such as UZR/150, attributed a -3.4 value for him in 2015 (his lowest rating since 2013).  The reasoning behind this value was his arm strength, that appears to be limiting his ability to throw runners out.  Ryan Romano wrote on the declining arm strength of Markakis to get outs in 2015.   The most telling state from this article is showing the assists made over his career compared to 2015:

With the years beginning to pile on Markakis, the limitation in his arm and range should continue to show decline.  Markakis’s familiarity with Camden Yards may allow him to rebound slightly in these areas.  However, the progression of talent downward has begun due to injuries and age.  And it’s not limited only to the fielding.  The power decline seen last year will continue even if the plate discipline remains.

Projection models have been down on Markakis. ZIPS projections on Markakis for the duration of the contract were as follows:

And here's Markakis ZiPS in ATL. Poor ZiPS can't even imagine someone wanting to give Markakis 140 games in '16. pic.twitter.com/KLlatpaKxh

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) December 4, 2014

Markakis was able to best these projections last year with a career year offensively at the plate utilizing his skill set of plate discipline and slap hitting. Age though is catching up to him quickly and the prospect of being much better than an average outfielder over the next three years is questionable at best.

So don’t fall prey to the memories Orioles fans.  Cherish and remember them fondly.  However, don’t fall prey to letting someone’s career dictate their future. The Orioles have already made that mistake several times this offseason.